Mueller’s charge: A search for justice, or a fishing excursion?

Commentary by James Shott

Back in May, the Department of Justice announced that Deputy Attorney General Rod J. Rosenstein had appointed a special counsel “to oversee the previously-confirmed FBI investigation of Russian government efforts to influence the 2016 presidential election and related matters.”

Rosenstein said he had “determined that it is in the public interest for me to exercise my authority and appoint a special counsel to assume responsibility for this matter,” adding that his decision “is not a finding that crimes have been committed or that any prosecution is warranted. ... What I have determined is that based upon the unique circumstances, the public interest requires me to place this investigation under the authority of a person who exercises a degree of independence from the normal chain of command.”

Rosenstein chose former Department of Justice official and former FBI Director Robert S. Mueller, III, a man roundly praised by Democrats and Republicans alike. Supportive comments included that he has impeccable credentials, and the knowledge and ability to do the right thing.

However, over recent months some inconvenient truths have arisen.

A special counsel’s or special prosecutor’s job is to investigate known crimes. As Rosenstein said, no actual crime has been identified. Therefore, the Russian involvement in the election that has commanded the attention of the media and Democrats for more than a year is not a criminal case. It is a counter-intelligence case, which does not require a special counsel.

As Mueller began recruiting his team of lawyers to assist in the investigation, it was noted that some of the early ones were donors to Democrat candidates. And to date, as reported by The Washington Post, of the 14 names confirmed by the special counsel’s office, seven of them have “donated a total of $60,787.77 to [Hillary] Clinton and other party candidates.”

William Barr, Attorney General in the George H.W. Bush administration, told the Post, "In my view, prosecutors who make political contributions are identifying fairly strongly with a political party." Can this investigation be objective?

The order creating the special counsel ostensibly is for investigating Russian election involvement. However, it effectively has no limits. Having found nothing pursuable in the Russian intrigue, which was the reason for appointing a special counsel, Mueller has moved on to other topics. He is now looking into matters involving Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn. If/when that one runs its course, another empty space awaits, like President Donald Trump’s business dealings years ago.

It is not unlike bringing a construction company executive to an empty field without a plan to follow, and saying, “build something.” There is no definite end to this process, unless someone somewhere can be indicted, or be persuaded to confess to something.

Critics say that Mueller’s job, and that of prosecutors generally, is to find a crime, and then to find a perpetrator, and it apparently is of little importance what the crime is, or who is responsible for it. Remember the investigation of Bill and Hillary Clinton in the Whitewater matter? It ended up being the Monica Lewinski matter. The two were barely related, if at all.

Prosecutors are known for “flipping” witnesses, pressuring them with prosecution for something – anything – to persuade them to tattle on someone – anyone – in order to avoid prosecution. A prosecutor’s job is, after all, to prosecute. No indictment in this matter indicates a failed investigation. Who wants that on their record?

Recently, Mueller impaneled a grand jury, and some think see that as an indication that Mueller is hot on the trail of criminal activity. And that is certainly a distinct possibility. However, another argument says grand juries are routine tools in such investigations, and assist in subpoenaing witnesses and aiding the investigation. Time will tell.

Be that as it may, conservative talk show host Mark Levin, who is a lawyer and president of the Landmark Legal Foundation, has a more threatening scenario. Calling it a “coup,” he said “Let me tell you what's going on here: they want to drag Donald Jr. in front of a grand jury and everybody else who was in that meeting – all eight of them – and see if they can find any contradictions in their testimony." Since there was no crime involved, Levin said the purpose is to “see if they can get somebody on a 'lie.' Perjury."

And now some suggest that Mueller is in breach of the rules and should resign.

The Daily Caller reported that Rep. Trent Franks, R-AZ, said, “Robert Mueller is in ‘clear violation’ of federal law prohibiting a special counsel from having a conflict of interest and therefore must immediately resign as special counsel overseeing the Russia investigation.”

Franks, a senior member of the House Judiciary Committee, said Mueller’s reported friendship with former FBI director James Comey, who first worked under Mueller, leaked information to the press to encourage the appointment of a special counsel. That presents a clear conflict of interest, defined by federal law as: “a personal relationship with any person substantially involved in the conduct that is the subject of the investigation or prosecution.”

At best we have a bunch of Republicans being investigated by a bunch of Democrats. What could possibly go wrong?

TRUMP TRIUMPHS BEFORE A JOINT SESSION OF CONGRESS

Trump Triumphs before a Joint Session of Congress

In an enlightening speech that stretched over 1 hour, before a joint session of  Congress, Donald Trump solidified his place in history as the 45^th President. Bold, visionary and inclusive the President hit all the right marks. Cloaked in stupidity  opposing Party members sat while the remainder of the audience stood more than a dozen times in appreciation as the President announced his initiatives. From repeal of Obamacare to improvement of the military President Trump touched upon an array of fixes for a nation needing repair. As the President covered many of the actions he has instituted in the last 30 days the Democrats could only grimace knowing the mess Trump inherited was their fault. Especially emotional was the eulogy President Trump gave to fallen Navy Seal William Ryan Owns as his widow look down from the gallery. The ovation to follow may have set a record for length. Tribute was also given to the father of a fallen hero, a women who worked her way out of poverty and a young lady who survived a life threatening disease. Nothing was too trivial for the 45^th manager of this country.  Trump shined tonight (2/28/2017) as the country looked on. The question remains how far will the Democrats go to gridlock Trump’s initiatives? From my humble perch the dingbat party will go to the extreme.

Mark Davis

platomd@gmail.com

Manager of Best Editing, Proofreading and Book Reviews

DONALD TRUMP'S THREE VOICES

President Trump speaks in three voices; economic, political and personal. Each of these three voices conveys hope in a time of hopelessness. Donald Trump came along when specious rhetoric from the opposing party tried to fool a nation that all was well. Political opponents threw darkness in his path yet candidate Trump pushed back with a fervor not seen in a generation. America was coasting downhill with no fix in sight. President Trump’s strong hand, steady mind and voice of reason came along to repair the mess as he described the conditions left behind by his predecessor. The Trump effect has infiltrated the minds of everyone who hears his words. Pleasing to most his three voices direct a former sad populous in the right direction. Trump’s naysayers are anarchists, celebrity degenerates, paid agitators and a dumb down populous. Consider Donald Trump the wealthiest repairman who every visited your home. In office for under one month Trump has already undone the tragedies performed by former President Obama in 8 years with more improvements to come. As I stated before we need Donald Trump more than he needs us.  Mark Davis MD

Manager of Best Book Reviews and Editing. platomd@gmail.com and the news website onandoffthehill.com

QUEEN OF HOLLYWOOD BELIEVES SHE IS QUEEN OF AMERICA

Queen of Hollywood believes she is Queen of America

Meryl Streep is unquestionably the most awarded actress in Hollywood history. Sadly she feels empowered to strike at President Trump whenever a convenient microphone is nearby. Streep’s political rants have made news recently especially her tirade at the Golden Globes last month. Leaning heavily to the left her commentary appears all over the map. From immigration to her reckless imagery of President Trump’s character she does not hold back in her personal attacks on him. Hollywood celebrities, with the exception of a few, lean heavily to the left reflected in their overwhelming support for Hillary Clinton. Ms. Streep’s bold denigration of our current President was answered in kind by the focus of her hateful narrative. Trump Tweeted that Ms. Streep is overrated as an actress. Many would agree with him. Nevertheless Ms. Streep, who believes her wealth and position in Hollywood gives her free reign to direct hateful rants towards our  newly elected leader, is wrong and should be reined in. Day to day this selfish woman does not come into contact with Obamacare, exposure to terrorism, packed flights at airports, illegal crimes and more. As long as her staff cleans her mansions, nannies her kids (if not grown), takes care of her gardens, runs errands and other actions that others perform for themselves she moves along in life untethered by norms we address daily.  Where was her voice when fifty people were killed in an Orlando Florida last summer? Where were her vocalizations when 14 people were murdered by terrorists in her over taxed state of California several years ago? Her silence on these and other acts of terrorism was deafening. Now we have a leader who desires to rein in those who could cause more tragedies against all of us and this wretch of a human being attacks him. Ms. Streep should take her rants to places they would be accepted, like the Middle East. They are not welcome in the New America. Mark Davis MD, platomd@gmail.com please follow us at our Website: onandoffthehill.com

DEMOCRATS TRY TO UNDERMINE TRUMP

Consistent in behavior as always the Democrats are demanding an inquiry into Russia-gate, there self-created scandal. I am still waiting for the results of the Democrat investigation into the IRS when this agency was used to hammer Republicans while Obama was still in office. This is one more open attempt by the Democrats to undermine Trump. It will not work. Trump solidified his presence as a World leader today by hosting Netanyahu of Israel. His predecessor made Netanyahu and entourage leave by the back door. Sadly Obama and his holdovers in various governmental agencies will make it tough to govern. I see mass firings in the near future.

Madonna F Bombs the Nation's Capital

Madonna F Bombs the Nation’s Capital

Meandering through the streets of Washington D.C., one day after Donald Trump’s inauguration, gaggles of women came to voice their concerns about our new President. Included in this group were the famous, infamous and the desperate. Stars of liberalism were sprinkled throughout the crowds. None was more ferocious than the queen of sexual deviancy than Madonna Louise Ciccone or simply Madonna.

Giving voice to tens of thousands whose lives are hidden behind commonality Madonna’s sharp tongue articulated the inexcusable. In an unintelligible rant fraught with the F word Madonna exhorted personal considerations to destroy the White House. This dissolute creature who pulled herself up from the gutter believes her wealth and fame should allow her to threaten anyone she is in disagreement with. Donald Trump is presently in the crosshairs of her less than insightful mind. Before he has had the chance to sign one piece of legislation into law this vixen of song wants him to meet his Maker by her hands. Normally when a person utters statements similar to hers the Secret Service would be at their door. Yet Madonna appears to have escaped government scrutiny for her verbal failings at least for now.

Women and others claiming to be women protested in the time honored tradition allowed by the Constitution. They came to Washington by the tens of thousands to deride the new President in media created belief that Trump believes women are beneath him. A small percentage of this motley group stepped over the line by displaying disgusting physical representations of female body parts. Reflecting Madonna’s sentiments many utilized threatening gestures and words in a mindless attempt to derail a new government. Part of the conversation concerned Trump’s personal morality. If there were comparisons to be made with the new President the morality of the provocateurs should be questioned.

Donald Trump, in his usual style, tweeted the following concerning those who descended on the Capital: “Watched protests yesterday but was under the impression that we just had an election! Why didn't these people vote? Celebs hurt cause badly.” His words were not ones of dissension but of observation. President Trump believes in the right to gather, protest and let off a little verbal steam. He questions the motivations of celebs who want to capture the limelight for one more spin around the block before going into oblivion. Distraught that America now has an alpha male in power instead of a gamma liberal minds seek to undermine the legitimacy of this new President. Their failures only strengthen the new Presidency which displayed enormous reserve in not constraining and containing these reprobates.

Donald Trump’s First Amendment beliefs were on display this weekend. Unlike Nixon, who I also admired, our new President could have ordered harsher tactics upon those who threatened the nation’s central seat of power. He did not. In doing so Trump set the tone of toleration for his term in office with one caveat: he will call out anyone who denigrates him. Celebs should be placed on notice the people are back in power. While Trump is clearing out the mess Obama left if you want to see the former denizen of the Oval Office make a left, head towards the left coast and follow the signs to la la land.

Mark Davis, MD platomd@gmail.com Book reviewer extraordinaire.

Yes, the campaign was wild and crazy, and the aftermath is, too!

Commentary by James Shott

The election of Donald Trump on November 8 set off waves of emotion, both positive and negative. Usually, such feelings wane and normalcy returns after several days, but three weeks later much of the negativism remains, and may have intensified.

Some of the reactions to the election strike many as farcical, even phantasmagoric. Many of the reactions strike directly at the very traditions and history of America and its people. Unsurprisingly, much of the craziest stuff arises on college campuses.

** A liberal arts college in western Massachusetts has taken down the American flag on campus until next semester in hopes it will free up students to have a “direct, open, and respectful conversation.”

You see, some view the flag at the center of the Hampshire College campus as a symbol of racism and hatred, and following the election, some students called for its removal.

The flag was pulled down and burned early one morning, and quickly replaced. But then the College Board decided the flag would be flown at half-staff, a decision that angered veterans and military families. The solution, the College decided, was to take the campus flag down until next semester, but not to ban all flags on the campus.

** Among the nation’s highly respected institutions of higher learning is the University of Virginia (UVA), founded nearly 200 years ago by Thomas Jefferson, author of the Declaration of Independence and third President of the United States.

After UVA President Teresa Sullivan quoted Jefferson in a campus-wide email encouraging students to stay resilient and hopeful while trying to recover from the distress suffered after the election, some students and faculty objected to the Jefferson quote.

A letter reportedly signed by 469 students and faculty said, in part: “For many of us, the inclusion of Jefferson quotations in these e-mails undermines the message of unity, equality and civility that you are attempting to convey.”

One might expect students and faculty at an institution of higher learning to be capable of appreciating that a positive message including a quote from the school’s famous founder is not necessarily rendered meaningless by the fact that Jefferson owned slaves. Such efforts by the easily offended on the left to erase elements of the nation’s history they don’t like in order to create the pretty and clean image that matches their fantasy is fundamentally dishonest.

While much of this activity has taken place on college campuses, it seems this craziness exists elsewhere in the U.S.

** An anti-Trump organization named “The #NotMyPresident Alliance” has exposed electors of the Electoral College to the whims of people who don’t want Trump to win the Electoral College vote by releasing personal information on the electors, including the personal phone numbers, addresses, religions, races, genders, and candidate preference of the electors. 

According to Buzzfeed.com, “The group hopes that its members and citizens around the country will contact electors and persuade them to change their vote from Donald Trump to another candidate before Dec. 19” when electors meet to cast their votes.

One wonders how many electors will be threatened by Trump opponents?

** Here’s an item that might produce cries of “Yes! Go for it!” People in the Golden State are calling for secession.

"The relationship between California and the federal system just isn't working," said one of those leading the protest, complaining that federal tax money paid by Californians “isn't adequately supporting aging infrastructure and public programs in the state.” He and a small group paced in front of the state capitol, chanting, "What do we want? Calexit! When do we want it? Now!"

Amid signs proclaiming "Free Hugs" and "Not my president," and some profane Trump chants, he said Trump’s election proves that America is failing. “So then the question becomes, do you want to go down with the sinking ship, knowing that you have a ship that's able to sail the international economy on its own?" California dreaming is alive and well.

** The Department of Justice charged the Denver Sheriffs Department for discriminating against illegal aliens in the hiring of deputy sheriffs. In response to this outrageous development, the Sheriffs Office did precisely the wrong thing: it worked out a settlement that included a $10,000 fine and agreed to change its job requirements to allow illegals to apply and perhaps be hired. The appropriate response: “No dice. We’ll decide who is qualified to serve our citizens, and illegal aliens in our country and state are not qualified.”

Why would anyone think it’s acceptable to hire people who broke the law when they came here to serve as law enforcement officers? It is not discrimination to exclude illegals and criminals from these jobs; it is common sense.

America is not about the majority bowing down to a minority who want to change long-standing traditions and practices they don’t like. We can’t allow ignorance and emotion to rule.

We just celebrated Thanksgiving, expressing our gratitude for the blessings we now have. Looking to next Thanksgiving, perhaps these misguided Americans will have realized that these things and the thoughts behind them are not what America is all about.

Cross-posted from Observations

The Trump transition is well underway, despite his enemies’ wishes

Commentary by James Shott

Two weeks after the presidential election, things are moving forward for President-Elect Donald Trump, who is busy selecting individuals for administration posts. 

Last week, Trump’s first two appointments were Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus as chief of staff and former head of Breitbart News, Stephen Bannon, as chief strategist. 

Amid assessments of the transition’s first few days as chaotic and on the cusp of failure, Bannon’s choice drew sharp criticism from the leftist Trump opponents and the major media, who are determined to criticize most everything Trump’s team does or says. 

Next came the choice of retired Lt. Gen. Michael T. Flynn as national security adviser, Rep. Mike Pompeo (R-Kan.) as director of the CIA, and Sen. Jeff Sessions, (R-Ala.) for Attorney General, subject to Senate approval, and meetings Saturday with 2012 Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney, thought to be a candidate for secretary of state, and with retired Marine Corps Gen. James Mattis, who is said to be a potential contender for defense secretary.

Meetings with potential selectees continued through the weekend, stoking the fires of speculation about who might go where and, of course, the predictable Democrat opposition’s criticism of people under consideration, as well as those already chosen.

As bad a choice as media and political enemies believe Trump to be, so far his transition is right on schedule.

Saturday, Trump took action to remove what likely would have become a big distraction to organizing his administration, doing so prior to being sworn in, and which likely would have continued at least into the early months of his presidency. Agreeing to a settlement of $25 million, three lawsuits aimed at Trump University have been resolved. The agreement also includes $1 million in penalties to the state of New York.

Former students of the school claimed that they paid thousands of dollars to learn Trump’s real estate success secrets, but contended that they were lured into paying up to $35,000 to learn from instructors hand-picked by Trump, which they claim did not happen.

The settlement was negotiated between Trump’s lawyers and New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman and the law firm that brought the suit against the now closed school. The settlement does not require an admission of guilt from Trump, but Trump’s organization issued a statement that said, "We are pleased to announce the complete resolution of all litigation involving Trump University. While we have no doubt that Trump University would have prevailed at trial based on the merits of this case, resolution of these matters allows President-Elect Trump to devote his full attention to the important issues facing our great nation."

If there is a downside to settling the lawsuits, it is that we may never know which side is right. Did Trump defraud the students, or is it merely an opportunity seized upon by students and lawyers hoping for a big payout?

Removing what would have become a huge distraction enables Trump to get on with the business of organizing his presidency, even as his political enemies occupy themselves with petty criticisms about appointments and who he is talking with, suggestions of who he should be talking with, and arguing about whether it was FBI Director James Comey’s handling of the email investigation or the Electoral College that defeated Hillary Clinton, not Donald Trump.

Democrats have begun a move to have the Electoral College, the Constitutional mechanism to determine who becomes president, replaced by the popular vote. At the Constitutional Convention, several methods of electing a president were considered, but the Founders well knew the dangers of consolidated power. After much debate and compromise they devised a system that instead distributed power more broadly, balancing federal powers with those of the states, and providing a voice to all states, not just the most populous. 

As Heritage Foundation legal expert Hans von Spakovsky noted: “In creating the basic architecture of the American government, the Founders struggled to satisfy each state’s demand for greater representation while attempting to balance popular sovereignty against the risk posed to the minority from majoritarian rule.”

And the result has been that the Electoral College has provided stability to the process of picking presidents. Though the national popular vote winner typically wins the presidency, that vote failed to determine the winner in four previous elections: 1824, 1876, 1888, and 2000, and the republic survived quite well, thank you.

And the wisdom of the Founders has once again been proven in the 2016 election where the least desirable candidate, Hillary Clinton, wound up with a comparatively thin popular vote margin of 50.6 percent of the vote to Trump’s 49.4 percent; 1.4 million votes out of 124.7 million, meaning that Clinton got 1.15 more votes per hundred voters than Trump did. 

A margin this thin is well within the margin of error of political polling, and hardly worthy of the hysteria that has been demonstrated by this miniscule difference in vote totals.

What this effort does best is illustrate the level of desperation, disbelief and unwillingness to accept the outcome that is so firmly ingrained into the political left and their sub-faction, the major national media.

But as before, the republic will endure and thrive.

Cross-posted from Observations

Moving forward, with the election of 2016 in the rearview mirror

Commentary by James Shott

Tuesday, November 8 was a stunning repudiation of the eight years of Barack Obama’s presidency. It was a revolution. The media and the left are in a daze; they don’t understand what happened. They didn’t notice that the people were unhappy with the direction of the country, and the people showed them that they are in charge.

With a Republican president and Republican majorities in each House of the Congress, the stage is set for needed change, and the by-word for Republicans is: Restoration.

That is a tall order; given the deep slide the country has been in for so many years. Among items badly needing attention:

* Gain control of the borders and restore immigration laws and policies so that they benefit and protect the people of the United States. There is no obligation to accept immigrants or refugees, and if we choose to accept some, they must be carefully vetted to select those that will help America the most. Do away with sanctuary jurisdictions in the U.S.

* Reverse many/all of Obama’s Executive Orders that are either unconstitutional, attempts to circumvent Congressional treaty authority, or just bad ideas.

* Revitalize and build up the American military to its former strength and effectiveness.

* The IRS, EPA, DOE and other executive departments are staffed by many who, instead of serving the people, are serving political/ideological masters. Replace these people with true public servants.

* Repeal or heavily modify the Affordable Care Act to increase private sector insurance coverage and encourage more choices and more competition among providers of insurance and health care, and to lower prices. Get the government out of healthcare as much as possible.

* Simplify the tax code and adjust rates, and reduce regulations. These things impair business development, stifle job creation, and that make moving jobs and companies overseas more appealing.

*Restore the constitutional balance of power and reverse Congress’ unconstitutional transfer of law making through regulations by executive agencies and departments.

* Vacancies on the Supreme Court and other federal courts must be filled by people who not only understand the original language and intent of the Constitution, but will honor it. Changes to the Constitution must occur through the process outlined in the Constitution itself, not through unelected activist judges.

* The election process has many weaknesses that allow the dead to vote and other problems that can be utilized for illegal purposes. Furthermore, there is simply no legitimate reason to not implement a photo ID requirement to vote in federal elections. A photo ID is required to buy alcohol or cigarettes; open a bank account; apply for food stamps, welfare, Medicaid/Social Security, unemployment, a mortgage or a job; drive/buy/rent a car; get on an airplane; purchase a gun; adopt a pet; rent a hotel room, and many other things. But not to vote. Clean up voter rolls, be more vigilant and punish cheaters.

* A balanced budget is not immediately possible, but begin to decrease the size and cost of government and start reducing the gargantuan National Debt.

* Congress was not intended to be, and should not be, a career, and lengthy Congressional service has produced an unhealthy culture. The Framers envisioned citizen legislators, people who did their elected job for part of the year and worked their jobs at home the rest of the year, and after a term or two returned to civilian life. We need to move toward that environment.

* And last, but certainly not least: Uphold the Rule of Law; eliminate the double standard: Government workers at all levels must be held to the same legal standards as the people who pay their salaries. This includes such folks as the IRS’s Lois Learner and, yes, Hillary Clinton. It is true that the defeat in the election was a true blow to her, and yes, that can be taken into account. However, as Secretary of State, Clinton breached security and put at risk sensitive national security information, destroyed evidence, and lied to Congress about it.

Others who have done similar things have suffered criminal penalties for their wrongdoing; retired Army General David Petraeus and active-duty Petty Officer First Class Kristian Saucier, and many others were punished through the legal system for security breaches. So, too, must Clinton be.

FBI Director James Comey introduced a new element into criminal law when he decided Clinton should not be indicted for her wrong doing because he was unable to establish the intent to breach security. She thus escaped justice where others did not. However, when lawyers for Saucier told the court their client did not intend to breach security, as Comey asserted about Clinton, the judge rebuked them for using that defense.

She should not be pardoned; the legal system exists to find and punish criminal behavior. If appropriate for her deeds, she should be charged, and absent a guilty plea, tried. If guilty by plea or by trial, a large fine and/or probation would be appropriate. It’s only fair: equal justice under the law. Otherwise, it will be a huge statement that some are above the law.

There is much to be done. Let’s get started.

Cross-posted from Observations

October’s jobs and economic numbers do not warrant much celebration

Commentary by James Shott

President Barack Obama’s last chance before the election to show that Democrat policies are producing favorable economic and job conditions has ended, and October’s economic numbers contain some positive news, but not a lot.

Among the better news, the most often cited unemployment rate dropped slightly, and average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 10 cents.

President Obama and the Democrats are thrilled that the U-3 unemployment rate dropped a bit in October to 4.9 percent, the same level at which it stood in June, July and August before rising to 5.0 percent in September. Unemployment of 4.9 percent is a respectable rate, so long as other factors do not provide contradictory facts. But, alas, they do.

The U-3 rate is one of six different looks at alternative measures of labor underutilization in the country, and counts those in the labor force who are working as well as those who have lost their job, but are actively looking for another one.

The weakness of the U-3 is, however, that there are a tremendous number of Americans of working age who are not working or looking for a job any longer because they became discouraged at being unable to find a job, and have dropped out of the labor force, although they would gladly go back to work if the business climate improved and the economy produced a job for them. The U-6 rate reflects the unemployment rate with these folks included in the calculation, and stood at 9.5 percent at the end of October. The U-6 rate is far more reflective of the actual health of the employment environment than the more frequently cited U-3 rate, and 9.5 percent is not good.

Thus far in 2016, employment growth has averaged 181,000 per month, compared with an average monthly increase of 229,000 in 2015. Neither level has been enough to help those millions of discouraged workers who have given up looking for work, as demonstrated by the U-6 unemployment number.

In October, 1.7 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force. While total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 161,000 in October, 487,000 discouraged workers dropped out of the workforce; three times as many people quit the workforce because they couldn’t find a job as were hired for a new job. That explains the small improvent in the U-3 rate.

“The sectors witnessing the strongest boost in hiring over the past year included education, health and professional and business services in October,” write Nick Timiraos and Josh Zumbrun on The Wall Street Journal blog. “The sectors with the weakest performance included manufacturing and mining.” Service sector jobs thrive while manufacturing sector jobs continue to suffer. And, since the last recession began in December of 2007, the number of new full-time positions and the number of new part-time positions are nearly equal.

Neither of these are good signs. Most people want full-time jobs, but they are in short supply, and that means lower earnings as a part-timer, or having to work multiple jobs to make ends meet. And in terms of worker earnings, manufacturing jobs most often pay better wages than service jobs.

The Labor Force Participation Rate was at 62.8 percent at the end of October, muddling along at levels not seen since the late 1970s.

A participation rate of 62.8 percent means that of every 1,000 people of working age that are actively in the labor force or have dropped out but are willing and want to work, only 628 have a job, a little less than two out of three. That translates to 94.5 million Americans of working age that are not working. The highest the participation rate has been in 2016 is 63.0 percent and the lowest is 62.6. Until after the recession began near the end of 2007, the participation rate hovered around 66.0, and nothing President Obama has done in eight years has reversed the steady slide and the leveling out in the 62 percent range.

After seven years in office the Obama economy had produced an average real GDP growth rate of a weak 1.55 percent, ranking Obama as fourth from the bottom of previous Presidents of the United States. In October 2016, GDP registered a growth rate of 2.9 percent, by far the best this year. However, by comparison, U.S. real GDP growth averaged 3.79 percent from 1790 to 2000. The Obama administration’s over-regulation and poor tax policies hampered business activity, hence job production.

As voters go to the polls to complete the process of choosing Obama’s successor, a major question is whether they will vote to elect Hillary Clinton and stay on the present failed course for four or perhaps eight more years of economic weakness, millions of Americans out of work, weak GDP, and jobs forced overseas by foolish tax and regulatory policy.

Or, will they vote for a change by electing Donald Trump, who at least very well understands business and how economic policies like those of Obama and Clinton harm the very people they are elected to serve. Let us hope for the latter, and provide America the chance for better things in the future.

Cross-posted from Observations

R.I.P. GOP?

Commentary by James Shott
 
The Republican Party is a mess. It has:
    •    Lost its way as a political force;
    •    Largely abandoned American traditions and founding principles;
    •    Become “Democrat lite,” because Republicans nowadays so often think and vote like Democrats;
    •    Failed to listen to its members.

With the GOP disintegrating there is little to halt or slow the devolution of the United States into just one more failed socialist state, something Barack Obama has worked tirelessly to achieve, and which either Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders would continue.

Donald Trump leads conventional Republican candidates in the primaries and caucuses, which surprises and confounds the party elite, who thought he would be a flash in the pan, and would soon fade away, leaving them to continue abandoning their party’s role in protecting the American way of life, and ignoring the concerns of their voters. This effectively demonstrates how badly they have misjudged the level of anger and disgust with the current state of their party that rank and file Republicans feel today, as well as the high degree of dissatisfaction they and a host of non-Republicans have with the federal government.

Trump’s behavior is at once energizing and destructive. It has won him a large following, and at the same time has exaggerated the party’s fracturing, pitting candidates against him and against each other in an elementary schoolyard brawl. But his tactic of saying things others are afraid to say, and ignoring the stupid but daunting rules of political correctness, has energized millions of dissatisfied Republicans, and has attracted non-Republicans, including blacks and Hispanics, to his campaign.

The “establishment” Republicans – those whose weak-kneed perspective has transformed the party to Democrat lite – are working to subvert the primary process, disenfranchising the Republican primary/caucus voters. The establishment’s behavior over recent years is precisely why things are as they are, and hardly anything could be worse than ignoring the plain message sent by the voters in the primaries and caucuses that substantial change in the GOP is needed. It is difficult to imagine that the Republican Party will be able to survive if it betrays the loud voices of those who make up the party telling them to man up, and still remain a viable political entity.

A perfect example of the tone-deafness of the party elite is the blistering condemnation of Donald Trump by 2012 GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney, who turned backflips to make Trump seem like the Devil incarnate. If that doesn’t seem strange, consider that during the campaign four years ago, following Trump’s endorsement, Romney effusively praised him, and then proceeded to lose the election by failing to be as strong in his opposition to Obama as he was in his praise of Trump.

It is another tribute to the failure of the GOP establishment that it regards Romney’s foolish trashing of Trump more highly than the candidate now leading the party’s nominating process.

Peggy Noonan, who was Special Assistant to President Ronald Reagan and now a political columnist for The Wall Street Journal, wrote last week, “I think we are seeing a great political party shatter before our eyes. I’m not sure I see a way around or through.” Of the spectacle of last Tuesday’s debate in Detroit she noted that the current GOP crisis is “something bigger than 1976, that traumatic year when a Republican insurgent almost toppled the incumbent Republican president. Bigger too than 1964, when Goldwater conservatism swept the primaries and convention and lost the country.”

She asserts that what is happening now is more serious and less reparable because it is not about political philosophy. But it seems that the party’s abandonment of conservative principles is precisely what this is about.

By ignoring the increasing frustration of the rank and file over Republicans in Congress failing to stand up against liberalizing of government policies and recent executive branch excesses, the party elite set the stage for Donald Trump’s stunning dominance among those seeking the party’s nomination.

Where Trump is concerned the party elite is damned if they do and damned if they don’t. If they allow the process to play out and he wins the nomination, someone believed by millions to be neither a Republican, a conservative or suitable to be president will carry the Party banner into the election.

If they continue the plot to subversively prevent Trump from getting the nomination, they will alienate millions of otherwise dependable Republican voters.

It seems likely at this stage that the Republican Party will endure, but not as a meaningful political force equal to the Democrat Party. The Republican establishment will be left holding the tatters of a once-Grand Old Party while conservatives move on to greener pastures.

Disaffected Republican voters and others dissatisfied with the status quo that might have stuck with or joined a conservative GOP now will seek an organization that honors and defends the U.S. Constitution not only in word, but also in deed.

The question is whether without a viable opponent to Hillary or Bernie, or a split among those opponents, will it be possible four or eight years later to repair the damage likely to result from another liberal/socialist in the White House?

Cross-posted from Observations

The Trump Effect

The Trump effect

 

Collective efforts by 17 Republican candidates to energize the public in their direction have not caught fire except for one person, Donald Trump. Media programs that lean towards one side of the aisle or the other are endlessly discussing the Trump effect on the potential electorate. Core topics from immigration to national health care have been transformed by an outsider who has placed a new twist on these banal subjects. Donald Trump has codified his message with a simplicity that resonates across a gamut of the population. From state fairs to corner stores Trump appears to be everywhere willing to discuss his message with anyone willing to listen.

 

Pundits of all stripes continue to assault this political outsider noting his meteoric rise will crash and burn in due course. Extensive polls done pre and post the first debate continue to indicate Trump is firmly planted at the top of each one. With a finesse reserved to a polished few, the Donald as many call him, easily deflects questions that deteriorate from his message. From bankruptcy to his position on women’s issues he discusses the basics while directing the conversation on to the next subject before fully answering the first one. Consequently some have become suspicious of him for the profound lack of depth in his answers to issues others have algorithmically discussed. Nevertheless Trump has been able to jump over this hurdle by mesmerizing those who come before him noting his successes while deflating his failures.

 

In interview after interview most reporters have gingerly discussed his background and preparation to become Commander in Chief. As Trump notes he built a vast company which has tentacles that reach into many areas that a president should have knowledge of. He wastes no time inferring how poor our American leadership is compared to that of China, Mexico and other countries. Trump’s major theme is these countries dump their products here and we send our money there. On immigration he has echoed an array of proposals to slow the rate of new arrivals and a methodology to repatriate illegals to their home countries.  Many question whether Donald Trump has the staying power to remain in the race. For now he is on the top of the heap and continues to defy the logic of the pundits calling for him to fail. The road to the November 2016 election is long and treacherous. All eyes, presently, are on the street fighter from New York who does not plan to go down for the ten count.

Mark Davis MD, President of Davis Media and Writing Services.

www.daviswritingservices.com, platomd@gmail.com

Trump seeks the nomination, and it was a “good week for Obama”

Commentary by James Shott

Perhaps everyone should have known that Donald Trump threatening to enter the GOP nomination race would have produced so much negativity. First reactions were that he really wouldn’t follow through, wouldn’t take the steps necessary to become a candidate. But as he completed them, one after another, the criticisms only increased.

Love him or hate him (as most seem to) Mr. Trump – “The Donald,” as he is affectionately known – is a force to be reckoned with.

A poll by the Morning Consult online asked people “what they think of when they hear Trump’s name, [and] a majority of registered voters came up with a negative word. ‘Arrogant,’ ‘ego’ or ‘egomaniac’ and ‘greed’ or ‘greedy’ were the most common negative responses.” “Few offered purely positive descriptors; ‘good’ or ‘great’ only came up 14 times among the 1,306 respondents,” less than 1 percent.

With his “no holds barred” approach to life, Donald Trump upsets lots of folks, including fellow Republican candidates. He comes from a different world than the politicians do. In his world, you say what needs to be said, and it may not be the kind and gentle talk that the media and those in politics expect.

In politics you must be careful to never alienate a potential voter, and these days you must not offend anyone. Ever. Therefore, the comments in his candidacy announcement about illegal aliens coming across the southern border really set off a firestorm of criticism.

The Trump style may be blunt and not politically correct, but his points are valid: Our border is a sieve leaking who knows who into the country, among which we know are some criminals, rapists, and drug cartel members, and probably a few terrorists. Although a little later in those comments he said plainly that the bad folks aren’t just from Mexico, they are also from Central America and South America, but they do enter the U.S. from Mexico.

Donald Trump has been wildly successful in business, and you don’t accomplish the things he has accomplished without knowing what needs to be done, and doing it. That no-nonsense approach and plain talk is missing in many or most of our current and potential elected leaders on all sides, although they do have political experience, which he does not have. Political inexperience and his blunt talk likely mean he will not win the Republican nomination.

But you can count on Donald Trump to talk about things many other candidates would rather not talk about, and do so in a manner does not comport with the accepted style. This will provide the media with a great opportunity to distract the public by trying to trap Republican candidates into either defending or attacking him personally, and making the campaign all about Trump, instead of the important issues facing the country.

We have already seen some Republicans fall into that trap, and more of them likely will. Republicans are known for their proclivity to kill each other and themselves off, making the Democrats’ job much easier.

While Donald Trump is being skewered for something he said and how he said it, President Barack Obama is being celebrated for things he had nothing to do with, and for things of questionable value to the United States. 

“Wow! Is President Obama on a roll or what!”  trumpeted columnist Ann McFeatters. The country is just “watching in amazement at what seems like a kaleidoscope of change.” 

She believes that Mr. Obama has reaped benefits for some things he had nothing to do with, like:
A. “In rapid succession, we have seen the Supreme Court rule in favor of samesex [sic] marriage equality, and uphold the legality [of the] Affordable Care Act.” Advocates are unconcerned with the constitutional gymnastics needed to arrive at those faulty decisions.
B. “One hundred and fifty years after the Civil War, the Confederate battle flag, symbolic of racism and rebellion against the United States, is finally ceasing to be flown over public buildings.” She must not know that 57 percent of Americans in a recent poll see the battle flag as a symbol of history, not of racism.

And she gives credit for things of questionable value:
A. “And, now, relations with Cuba! ... For the first time since 1961 Cuba will have a U.S. embassy,” as if giving Cuba this gift really means anything without some substantive results for both the U.S. and Cuba. On the other hand, Americans may at last be able to legally buy Cuban cigars.
B. “Obama is trying hard to keep Iran from getting nuclear weapons. It may not be possible, but naysayers to his plan simply do not understand realpolitik in today’s complicated world.” Realpolitik must mean giving up sanctions on Iran and at the same time not blocking that rogue nation from producing nuclear weapons, as well as speeding up the process for the acquisition of nuclear weapons.

Mr. Obama’s legacy is apparently at the top of his priority list, as so many of his actions demonstrate. But just getting an agreement with Iran to burnish his image is a dangerous and foolish way to do that.

Cross-posted from Observations