More bad news for New Jersey surfaced last week as part of the disclosure paperwork released by the state as it prepares for a $535 million dollar general obligation bond issue. In the filings with the SEC it was reveled that the state's pension plans, now subject to new GASB accounting standards, are in much worse shape than previously thought. According to Reuters the funding level is nearly 20 percentage points lower than previously estimated. It is reported at just 44% funding for fiscal 2014.
This new level is even in dispute as an article from John Bury, a state pension expert that created the BuryPensions Blog, claims the funding level is just 32.6 percent of what is promised to government employees.
New Jersey is considered to be among the worst prepared and among the least well funded public pension systems of all states.
It does not take a crystal ball to know that when the stock market experiences a sharp decline or, as many financial pundits expect, the mega crash hits, this low level of funding will likely be catastrophic.
In advance of the pending calamity I think it is reasonable to ask how much this pension system and it's inequities to the private sector is behind the dismal economy and dire loss of opportunity that the people of New Jersey face?
America's Poster Child of Decline; Bankrupted Morals and Bankrupted Finances
RESOURCES
Pension & Investments
http://www.pionline.com/article/20141126/ONLINE/141129877/new-gasb-rules-result-in-new-jerseys-funded-status-plummeting-to-44
Reuters
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/26/usa-new-jersey-pensions-idUSL2N0TF23620141126
BuryPensions Blog
https://burypensions.wordpress.com/2014/11/26/32-6-funded-ratio/
Showing posts with label Pensions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Pensions. Show all posts
Wednesday, December 03, 2014
Thursday, November 06, 2014
New Jersey; It's You People, Stupid. New Jersey is a poster Child for Liberal Failure.
UPDATE
APRIL 12, 2016:
BAD NEWS CONTINUES
American Legislative Exchange Council's 9th Addition of Rich States Poor States shows New Jersey continues to help hold down the bottom of the list this year declining to 48th worst state. A pitiful performance from what once was a great state. Destroyed by decades of leftwing lies and liberal ignorance.
LINK - American Legislative Exchange Council's 9th Addition
------
PREVIOUS: This article published first in 2014 but it still applies - New Jersey people, you should be embarrassed.
More bad news for New Jersey, again ranked as one of the highest taxed and worst performing economies in the nation according to the Tax Foundation study released last month. Add to that the mounting evidence outward migration is increasing. Continuing decline is in your tarot cards.
My most recent U-Haul rate study indicates it is 3.86 times more expensive to leave New Jersey for Austin Texas than it is to go to New Jersey from Austin Texas. Nearly 4 time more expensive getting out than getting in. What's that tell you?
That is a 53% increase in the U-Haul costs from this same time last year.
Granted, it is not a scientific study, all the same, people are leaving New Jersey at a staggering rate. I have run this study 2 times a year for the past 4 years. It has never been this bad. In fact it has been fairly stable at a 2.5 times ratio for the past two years right up through June 2014 when I ran the study last. Since then we see this jump, a spike in getting the hell out.
Is it just the high taxes and regulatory climate? No, I don't think so, New Jersey has lots going against it in addition to high taxes. For one thing there is a crooked croniness in NJ, an embedded corruption that permeates the society. Northern New Jersey where I went to High School has developed a culture of "Me, Me, Me". A selfish, ignorant callousness of much of the population combined with an intellectual laziness. That narcissistic culture is particularly annoying, people just didn't care about anything outside their self-centered personal worlds.
It is ironic that the generation of peace and love that grew out of the 60s and 70s has become the generation of "I don't care...it's all about Me, Me, Me".
It is this self absorption on steroids that undermines the sense of community that is now it is coming home to roust.
Why do I dwell on this issue, New Jersey the poster child of liberal failure?
There is an old adage; you can not fix a problem unless you identify the problem. In decades of civic involvement in Chambers of Commerce and in other 'quasi' government organizations I've seen and experienced repeated patterns. The same situation plays out over and over again. Critical social problems are obfuscated and faux efforts at solutions deployed. It's an organized, intentional form of social insanity. If you continue to do the same thing over and over again and expect different results - we all have heard it, that is insanity.
Back to the old adage, you can not fix a problem unless you identify the problem. The problem is the intentional efforts of the progressive leadership. The culture that grows from progressive liberalism which I think many of us believe is the center of New Jersey's and much of America's problems. That is why I dwell on it. The problem is the type of people that lead areas like New Jersey and Northern California and Urban Illinois. It's the people, Stupid.
When you create a society that is blinded to itself it is easy to control that society and that is what progressives have done to the people of New Jersey and much of liberal America. Progressives have transferred the responsibility of awareness from the people and replaced it with a sense of entitlement. With the entitlement there is little reason to think beyond ones self interest hence the perspective of "whats in it for me?" Progressive liberals campaign on that premise and the self absorberd buy it. . .
If you want to fix this problem you have to call it out, you have to point the finger of blame, you have to put the cause on notice. It's the people, stupid.
Simple answer: If you don't want their fate, don't do what they do.
That is why I dwell on it. I want the people causing the problem to be spotlighted for what they are.
It's the liberals, Stupid.
My most recent U-Haul rate study indicates it is 3.86 times more expensive to leave New Jersey for Austin Texas than it is to go to New Jersey from Austin Texas. Nearly 4 time more expensive getting out than getting in. What's that tell you?
That is a 53% increase in the U-Haul costs from this same time last year.
Granted, it is not a scientific study, all the same, people are leaving New Jersey at a staggering rate. I have run this study 2 times a year for the past 4 years. It has never been this bad. In fact it has been fairly stable at a 2.5 times ratio for the past two years right up through June 2014 when I ran the study last. Since then we see this jump, a spike in getting the hell out.
The study though not scientific is a fair indication of the effects of supply and demand. It focuses on the U-Haul rates to and from Austin Texas and several key areas, Northern California, Chicago, Illinois and Wayne, New Jersey. Three areas ranked as having excessive regulatory and anti business climates.
Is it just the high taxes and regulatory climate? No, I don't think so, New Jersey has lots going against it in addition to high taxes. For one thing there is a crooked croniness in NJ, an embedded corruption that permeates the society. Northern New Jersey where I went to High School has developed a culture of "Me, Me, Me". A selfish, ignorant callousness of much of the population combined with an intellectual laziness. That narcissistic culture is particularly annoying, people just didn't care about anything outside their self-centered personal worlds.
It is ironic that the generation of peace and love that grew out of the 60s and 70s has become the generation of "I don't care...it's all about Me, Me, Me".
It is this self absorption on steroids that undermines the sense of community that is now it is coming home to roust.
Why do I dwell on this issue, New Jersey the poster child of liberal failure?
There is an old adage; you can not fix a problem unless you identify the problem. In decades of civic involvement in Chambers of Commerce and in other 'quasi' government organizations I've seen and experienced repeated patterns. The same situation plays out over and over again. Critical social problems are obfuscated and faux efforts at solutions deployed. It's an organized, intentional form of social insanity. If you continue to do the same thing over and over again and expect different results - we all have heard it, that is insanity.
Back to the old adage, you can not fix a problem unless you identify the problem. The problem is the intentional efforts of the progressive leadership. The culture that grows from progressive liberalism which I think many of us believe is the center of New Jersey's and much of America's problems. That is why I dwell on it. The problem is the type of people that lead areas like New Jersey and Northern California and Urban Illinois. It's the people, Stupid.
When you create a society that is blinded to itself it is easy to control that society and that is what progressives have done to the people of New Jersey and much of liberal America. Progressives have transferred the responsibility of awareness from the people and replaced it with a sense of entitlement. With the entitlement there is little reason to think beyond ones self interest hence the perspective of "whats in it for me?" Progressive liberals campaign on that premise and the self absorberd buy it. . .
If you want to fix this problem you have to call it out, you have to point the finger of blame, you have to put the cause on notice. It's the people, stupid.
Simple answer: If you don't want their fate, don't do what they do.
That is why I dwell on it. I want the people causing the problem to be spotlighted for what they are.
It's the liberals, Stupid.
Friday, June 20, 2014
Christie, President, Fuggetaboutit New Jersey
The news continues to paint a deep dark picture in New Jersey, especially for Christie's presidential run. In a word, Fuggetaboutit.
Last month Christie was forced to cut $2.5 Billion dollars from the State planned pension contribution and now today comes word that the Revel Casino in Atlantic City is likely to close down. In a letter to employees the company projected Mid August to shut the doors if they cant find a buyer. New Jersey tax payers are likely to loss all of the $260 million dollars they invested into the project in 2011 under Christie's lead.
Bridgegate aside, I think it is the collapse of the income expectations in his budget combined with the ineffective pension fix he totted that have sent his presidential bid into the toilet for the final flush.
The monstrosity playing out in Atlantic city today was predicted years back. Long before this project ran into trouble, long before the government bailed it out. Pennsylvania dealt a decisive blow back when they announced the boarder casino wall project, that was back in the 2005 era.
The financial and structural issues NJ faces are massive and this casino failure will be more than just a nail in Jersey's coffin.
The depth of the problem is still not clear due to the complexities of pension actuarial regulations associated with government pension plans The obfuscation caused by the decades long GASB / FASB reporting disparities is in my opinion outright intentional deception by GASB. Over two decades of an unsupportable position on the NON reporting requirements of unfunded liabilities. That is a crime, if not by statute than surely by logic.
In fairness to GASB, it's now admitted their actions were "problematic" and the fix is at hand, but so much damage has been done. The problems are ahead of us, not behind us, and they are massive. Terminal? Maybe.
The full scope of the unfunded liabilities is an important factor but I think the key issue is more one of social injustice issue than just a massive financial problem. It is the government "ruling" the people no longer "of the people". Few talk details about it but that is why so much anger is developing.
THE TWO SIMPLE QUESTION THAT NEEDS TO BE ADDRESSED
1) Why are government employees compensated (total package) so much higher than their private sector counterparts?
2) Why are there special tax benefits and legal standards afforded to government employees?
As I see it that is the fundamental issue at hand. The ramifications are staggering. The productive sector of our economy is being drained not only of it's money but of its opportunity, it's promise, it's freedom its potential, this is having an impact on the very souls of the American citizens. The desperation, a sense of hopelessness is descending on America as a once unquestioned brightness now faces the darkness. An unknown future and a lack of confidence in the most turbulent of times.
New Jersey's problems are deep but it is the social injustice being forced on the population by a corrupted government that hid the truth for decades and created a sense of entitlement for the government employees.
U-Haul Rate Study- Cost comparison Wayne New Jersey to Austin Texas and vice-a-versa
My most recent review of the U-Haul rates Between Wayne, New Jersey and Austin, Texas indicates that it is 250% more expensive to rent a 26 foot truck to go to Austin than to do the reverse. Drilling deeper I found the cost difference for a 17 foot truck is less, 200%. This may indicate that it is the larger, more established households moving out. This supply and demand analysis is not a scientific assessment by any means however it is at the least a curious argument. The 250% difference on the larger truck appears to come from cost discount to return the asset back to NJ.
That's the way I see it.
FASB - The governing body of private sector accounting standards
GASB - The governing body of government sector accounting standards
Last month Christie was forced to cut $2.5 Billion dollars from the State planned pension contribution and now today comes word that the Revel Casino in Atlantic City is likely to close down. In a letter to employees the company projected Mid August to shut the doors if they cant find a buyer. New Jersey tax payers are likely to loss all of the $260 million dollars they invested into the project in 2011 under Christie's lead.
The monstrosity playing out in Atlantic city today was predicted years back. Long before this project ran into trouble, long before the government bailed it out. Pennsylvania dealt a decisive blow back when they announced the boarder casino wall project, that was back in the 2005 era.
The financial and structural issues NJ faces are massive and this casino failure will be more than just a nail in Jersey's coffin.
The depth of the problem is still not clear due to the complexities of pension actuarial regulations associated with government pension plans The obfuscation caused by the decades long GASB / FASB reporting disparities is in my opinion outright intentional deception by GASB. Over two decades of an unsupportable position on the NON reporting requirements of unfunded liabilities. That is a crime, if not by statute than surely by logic.
In fairness to GASB, it's now admitted their actions were "problematic" and the fix is at hand, but so much damage has been done. The problems are ahead of us, not behind us, and they are massive. Terminal? Maybe.
The full scope of the unfunded liabilities is an important factor but I think the key issue is more one of social injustice issue than just a massive financial problem. It is the government "ruling" the people no longer "of the people". Few talk details about it but that is why so much anger is developing.
THE TWO SIMPLE QUESTION THAT NEEDS TO BE ADDRESSED
1) Why are government employees compensated (total package) so much higher than their private sector counterparts?
2) Why are there special tax benefits and legal standards afforded to government employees?
As I see it that is the fundamental issue at hand. The ramifications are staggering. The productive sector of our economy is being drained not only of it's money but of its opportunity, it's promise, it's freedom its potential, this is having an impact on the very souls of the American citizens. The desperation, a sense of hopelessness is descending on America as a once unquestioned brightness now faces the darkness. An unknown future and a lack of confidence in the most turbulent of times.
New Jersey's problems are deep but it is the social injustice being forced on the population by a corrupted government that hid the truth for decades and created a sense of entitlement for the government employees.
U-Haul Rate Study- Cost comparison Wayne New Jersey to Austin Texas and vice-a-versa
My most recent review of the U-Haul rates Between Wayne, New Jersey and Austin, Texas indicates that it is 250% more expensive to rent a 26 foot truck to go to Austin than to do the reverse. Drilling deeper I found the cost difference for a 17 foot truck is less, 200%. This may indicate that it is the larger, more established households moving out. This supply and demand analysis is not a scientific assessment by any means however it is at the least a curious argument. The 250% difference on the larger truck appears to come from cost discount to return the asset back to NJ.
That's the way I see it.
FASB - The governing body of private sector accounting standards
GASB - The governing body of government sector accounting standards
Thursday, April 03, 2014
Exodus from Philadelphia and New Jersey - Very Troubling New Research on U-Haul Rates
You would not know it if you relied on the main stream press in New Jersey but the migration of people out of state is accelerating. Last February I started keeping track of the U-Haul rate differences between key cities including my home town Wayne New Jersey and Austin Texas. How much to rent a truck to go to Austin From Wayne and vise a versa. The rate difference supported the anecdotal evidence, people were leaving New Jersey - the cost to leave was nearly twice as much as to go to New Jersey. Later in the year I checked again several times and around September the cost difference rose to 2.4 times more expensive to go to Austin than to come from there.
I also compared rates with Chicago witch was 3 to 1 and San Francisco 2 to 1. They have basically stayed the same.
Today I took a fresh look at the numbers they have changed drastically, they are much worse for New Jersey. The migration out of New Jersey based on my admittedly simplistic and non scientific analysis though arguably a strong assessment point has exploded to a record pace. In the last census period as I recall New Jersey lost a congressional seat. At the current pace they may loose another.
Click for data
More fundamentally is the concentration of the massive debts of New Jersey. The unfunded liabilities among the worst in the nation on a per capita basis. That burden will be born by a contracting population. This will be reflected in all aspects of New Jersean's lives, from jobs to home prices to business opportunities to public safety.
And of course increasing property taxes. Taxes that are already the highest in the nation.
Where did New Jersey go wrong? So wrong and seemingly so fast?
What can we learn from New Jersey's plight?
First let me dispel the speed, frankly this is the slowest train wreck in history, the price of a ticket, simply pennies worth of thoughts, the obfuscation, ... priceless. Well, not quit priceless, that's just a saying, it will be anything but priceless.
Simple, two accounting standards = two classes of society. We have lots more than two sets of accounting standards, suffice to say FASB and GASB are at the core. These two sets of standards enabled the fraud and deception of the voters regarding their financial obligations to the retirement plans of their public employees. What was illegal under one standard FASB was tactical under the other GASB.
The generation that has led the state of New Jersey to the brink of ruin.
Arguably the high schoolers of the 60s and 70s, now the teachers and leaders of today. It is this generations half baked liberalism that has shaped our today. Ironic is it not that yesterday's "flower children" turned into today's "blooming idiots".
America's Clueless Generation, the self righteous anti establishmentarians have now taken over and consumed the establishment, in doing so they have morphed it into a parasitic sponge, consuming the aspirational soul of generations and more fundamentally creating a corporatist culture that has plagued opportunity in America, squashing the drive of individualism and creating barriers to our former freedoms.
Scary days lie ahead for New Jersey and the Nation but as I see it, the sooner the cancers of America are brought to the surface and exposed to the light of truth the sooner the solutions to our future can be found.
 |
| The Hippies begot the Hipsters, hipsters begot ... ??? |
I also compared rates with Chicago witch was 3 to 1 and San Francisco 2 to 1. They have basically stayed the same.
Today I took a fresh look at the numbers they have changed drastically, they are much worse for New Jersey. The migration out of New Jersey based on my admittedly simplistic and non scientific analysis though arguably a strong assessment point has exploded to a record pace. In the last census period as I recall New Jersey lost a congressional seat. At the current pace they may loose another.
Click for data
More fundamentally is the concentration of the massive debts of New Jersey. The unfunded liabilities among the worst in the nation on a per capita basis. That burden will be born by a contracting population. This will be reflected in all aspects of New Jersean's lives, from jobs to home prices to business opportunities to public safety.
And of course increasing property taxes. Taxes that are already the highest in the nation.
Where did New Jersey go wrong? So wrong and seemingly so fast?
What can we learn from New Jersey's plight?
First let me dispel the speed, frankly this is the slowest train wreck in history, the price of a ticket, simply pennies worth of thoughts, the obfuscation, ... priceless. Well, not quit priceless, that's just a saying, it will be anything but priceless.
Simple, two accounting standards = two classes of society. We have lots more than two sets of accounting standards, suffice to say FASB and GASB are at the core. These two sets of standards enabled the fraud and deception of the voters regarding their financial obligations to the retirement plans of their public employees. What was illegal under one standard FASB was tactical under the other GASB.
The generation that has led the state of New Jersey to the brink of ruin.
Arguably the high schoolers of the 60s and 70s, now the teachers and leaders of today. It is this generations half baked liberalism that has shaped our today. Ironic is it not that yesterday's "flower children" turned into today's "blooming idiots".
America's Clueless Generation, the self righteous anti establishmentarians have now taken over and consumed the establishment, in doing so they have morphed it into a parasitic sponge, consuming the aspirational soul of generations and more fundamentally creating a corporatist culture that has plagued opportunity in America, squashing the drive of individualism and creating barriers to our former freedoms.
Scary days lie ahead for New Jersey and the Nation but as I see it, the sooner the cancers of America are brought to the surface and exposed to the light of truth the sooner the solutions to our future can be found.
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