Tuesday, May 14, 2013
The depths of the scandalous Benghazi episode are becoming clear
Tuesday, October 09, 2012
Trying to understand job numbers that appear to challenge reality
Commentary by James H. Shott
After three years of a lackluster economy, unacceptably high unemployment, serious policy gaffes and generally poor performance, President Barack Obama really needed some positive development. But he didn’t get anything positive at the first presidential debate with challenger Mitt Romney, which was, to be kind, uninspiring.
And then – magically, two days after the debate – the September jobs report came out and in one fell swoop wiped away that negative. From the jobs report we learned that the U-3 unemployment rate fell from 8.1 to 7.8 percent, a surprisingly large drop, given what we’ve seen over the last three years, big enough to get below the magic 8.0 threshold that dogs incumbent presidents.
But then the big surprise: There were 873,000 more people working in September than in August.
Really? Nearly a million people found work in one month?
That number is wildly out of line with months of job number reports. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), “In 2012, employment growth has averaged 146,000 per month, compared with an average monthly gain of 153,000 in 2011.” And suddenly, just when Mr. Obama needed it most, 873,000 people find work. What’s going on?
The BLS has two monthly surveys that measure employment levels and trends: the Current Population Survey – the household survey – and the Current Employment Statistics survey – the payroll or establishment survey – which the BLS describes thusly: “The household survey and establishment survey both produce sample-based estimates of employment and both have strengths and limitations.” The establishment survey has a larger sample size and smaller margin of error than the household survey. “However, the household survey has a more expansive scope than the establishment survey.”
Economists say that over a period of months the two different surveys will show similar results, however, the household survey is erratic, with wild monthly swings up and down, and it is not unusual for responses to the survey to be made by proxies, who may answer for the targeted respondent. Any single month’s results cannot be depended upon for an accurate picture of employment changes from the previous month, whereas the establishment rate moves more steadily up or down.
Illustrating that point is that the establishment/payroll survey showed total nonfarm payroll employment rose by only 114,000 in September, which is substantially lower than the monthly average of 146,000 for 2012, but more in line with average job growth than is the household figure.
“We believe part of the drop in the unemployment rate over the last two months is a statistical quirk (the household data show an increase in employment of 873,000 in September, which is completely implausible and likely a result of sampling volatility),” say economists John Ryding and Conrad DeQuadros of RDQ Economics. “Moreover, declining labor force participation over the last year (resulting in 1.1 million people disappearing from the labor force) accounts for much of the rest of the decline,” they conclude.
Just how implausible is that 873,000 new jobs number that appeared in only a month? It is the highest one-month jump in 29 years.
Further, the BLS explains that jobs reflected in the household survey are different types of jobs than are tracked in the payroll survey. They include those in start-up businesses, the self-employed, unpaid family workers, agricultural workers, private household workers, and some are people who can’t find a regular job and have started working from home, perhaps selling items on E-Bay; jobs that are excluded by the establishment survey.
While the U-3 rate fell to 7.8 percent, it is still too high. The sky-high number reported in the household rate may reflect a turn in the oh-so-slow rate of job creation. But it may not. We’ll have to wait and see what happens next month.
Following this “October Surprise,” to maintain a healthy perspective, other statistics must be kept in mind: The economy is grinding forward, with GDP a mere 1.3 percent last quarter. Most knowledgeable observers say we need 200,000 to 250,000 new jobs each month to drive unemployment down at a suitable speed, not the 146,000 we’ve been averaging. And while the Labor Force Participation Rate ticked up to 63.6 percent from 63.5 percent, it is still near the 30-year low.
More relevant, the U-6 unemployment rate counts those who are underemployed and those who have given up looking for a job, and now sits at the seasonally adjusted rate of 14.7 percent.
The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons rose from 8.0 million in August to 8.6 million in September, because many workers saw their hours cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job.
“The household survey painted a picture of a sharply falling unemployment rate—down 1.2 points over the last 12 months,” say Ryding and DeQuadros. “Such a rapid decline in the unemployment rate would be consistent with 4 percent to 5 percent real economic growth historically. Of course, the economy is not growing 4-to-5 percent, not even half that.”
Despite this surprising bit of good news, the economy is still under-performing, and nothing has changed to warrant four more years of Obamanomics. It’s way too little, and far too late.
Cross-posted from Observations
Tuesday, May 15, 2012
Liberal U.S. media working to subvert Mitt Romney’s candidacy
Commentary by James H. Shott
The experiences of Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney last week illustrate how the media fail to provide adequate, objective and balanced coverage of serious campaign issues.
Campaigning in Colorado last week, Mr. Romney gave an interview to a local TV reporter, no doubt wanting to talk about his ideas for combating the horrible economic conditions, the need for jobs, and other weighty problems that threaten the nation.
The reporter began by asking about Mr. Romney’s inability to connect with Colorado Republicans, and following his 24-second answer then moved to same-sex marriage. Mr. Romney gave what he said was the same answer to this question as he has given from the beginning. The reporter then asked follow-up questions on that same subject. After two minutes of questions and answers on same-sex marriage, the reporter then asked if illegal aliens should receive in-state tuition. And then after that she asked Mr. Romney about medical marijuana.
So, given the opportunity to interview the likely Republican nominee for the office of President of the United States, a local reporter spends three minutes of the four and one-half minute interview asking about social issues.
Mr. Romney had about all he could stand, so he protested, since medical marijuana, same-sex marriage and tuition for illegals are neither the most important issues facing the nation, nor something about which a President of the United States should be concerned, since they are state issues.
And, indeed, there are obviously more important issues needing attention, such as the $16 trillion national debt that runs to $50,000 for every one of the more than 300 million Americans. How about the highest corporate tax rate in the world that makes U.S. corporations less competitive in the world market? How about the 16 percent of American workers – about 13 million, all together – that can’t find a job at all, or are underemployed? What about a nuclear Iran, and the mess in Afghanistan? How about the fact that the Democrats in charge of the U.S. Senate have shirked their obligation to pass a budget for three straight years?
None of that seemed important to the reporter, but she finally did get around to asking questions about energy.
While the Colorado reporter was focusing on less relevant topics, the intrepid investigators at The Washington Post were busy looking into Mr. Romney’s high school days, searching for archaic dirt. And, they found some.
Some of the former governor’s high school classmates from 1965 said that he had indulged in boyish behavior, and one incident allegedly involved forcibly cutting the long blonde hair of a boy a year younger than Mr. Romney, who the classmates said may have been gay. If true, this was clearly wrong and indefensible. But it was nearly 50 years ago in high school, and appears to be an isolated incident. Yet, The Post thought it was important enough for 5,000 words starting on page 1 above the fold. And since then these allegations have “evolved” into proof that Mitt Romney was a homophobic bully. He also is accused of pulling classmate Susie Jones’ hair in the third grade.
The Post’s crack investigators successfully found this 47 year-old story about Mr. Romney (13 times longer ago than the last budget passed by our Democrat-controlled Senate), but gave little attention to Barack Obama’s history with former members of the Weather Underground and his admitted “enthusiastic” drug use, and were unable to find any information about his mysterious college days, including his grades, his formal papers, his days at the Harvard Law Review, his friends, etc.
Some people’s past apparently deserves closer scrutiny than others. You can understand why The Post might regard Mr. Romney’s past as more important: he’s running for President.
It is relevant to note that the family of John Lauber, the victim of Mr. Romney’s alleged brutish haircut, is appalled that their relative would be used for political purposes. His older sister, Christine, was unaware that Mitt Romney, or anyone else, “bullied” her brother, who passed away from liver cancer in 2004, but she was clearly not pleased by the story. “Even if it did happen, John probably wouldn’t have said anything,” she said. “If he were still alive today, he would be furious.”
“The family of John Lauber is releasing a statement saying the portrayal of John is factually incorrect and we are aggrieved that he would be used to further a political agenda,” she said. “There will be no more comments from the family.”
The treatment of Mitt Romney in 2012 and the treatment of Barack Obama in 2008 couldn’t be more different. In the Romney story, an unproved allegation of bullying gets front page treatment from The Washington Post, but admitted drug use, et al, by Barack Obama goes virtually unreported.
By emphasizing peripheral issues like same-sex marriage, illegal alien tuition, medical marijuana, and high school behavior, the liberal media distracts attention from President Obama’s dismal record on the critical economic problems. And in the attempt to discredit Mr. Romney, The Washington Post story denigrates John Lauber’s memory and upsets his family, presumably because of its obligation to inform the public. Well, about some things, anyway.
Cross-posted from Observations
Monday, February 06, 2012
Raining on the Republican’s Parade
Raining on the Republican’s Parade
A Commentary by J. D. Longstreet
There is an article making the rounds on the Internet that explains why Obama will be
reelected regardless of who the Republican nominee is and regardless of the economic
situation the US may find itself in at election time in November.
The article had a very prestigious economist’s name attached to it as the author, but
that turned out to be false.
I received it a few days ago as a “forwarded” e-mail. Needless to say, when its
contents struck a cord with me, I immediately began to investigate to see if I could learn
who, in fact, had written it. All I was able to ascertain was that, indeed, the economist
credited with having written it, did not.
Now, here’s the problem. I happen to agree with a good deal of the article’s premise…
that Obama will be reelected. I do not agree that he will win by a large margin, but I do
believe he will win, nevertheless.
Here’s some of the article. Again I do not know who wrote it. If I did, and could prove
it, I would certainly make the proper attribution. So, consider the author unknown.
The article says the following:
“The media won't tell you this because a good election campaign means hundreds of
millions (or in Obama's case billions) of dollars to them in advertising.
But the truth is, there simply are no conditions under which Barack Obama can be
defeated in 2012.
The quality of the Republican candidate doesn't matter. Obama gets reelected.
Nine percent unemployment? No problem. Obama will win.
Gas prices moving toward five dollars a gallon? He still wins.
The economy soars or goes into the gutter. Obama wins.
War in the Middle East? He wins a second term.
America's role as the leading Superpower disappears? Just what he wants!
The U.S. government rushes toward bankruptcy, the dollar continues to sink on world
markets and the price of daily goods and services soars due to inflation fueled by Obama's
extraordinary deficit spending? No matter. Obama wins handily.
Many will say, “You are crazy. Don't you understand how volatile politics can be when
overall economic, government, and world conditions are declining?” Sure I do.
And that's why I know Obama will win. The American people are notoriously ignorant of
economics. And economics is the key to why Obama should be defeated.
Even when Obama's policies lead the nation to final ruin, the majority of the American
people are going to believe the bait-and-switch tactics Obama and his supporters in the
media will use to explain why it isn't his fault. After all, things were much worse than
understood when he took office.
Obama's reelection is really a very, very simple math problem. Consider the following:
1) Blacks will vote for Obama blindly. Period. Doesn't matter what he does. It's a
race thing. He's one of us.
That’s why the media destroyed Herman Cain so handily. Too big a threat.
2) College educated women will vote for Obama. Though they will be offended by this,
they swoon at his oratory. It's really not more complex than that.
3) Liberals will vote for Obama. He is their great hope.
4) Democrats will vote for Obama. He is the leader of their party and his coat tails
will carry them to victory nationwide.
5) Hispanics will vote for Obama. He is the path to citizenship for those who are here
illegally and Hispanic leaders recognize the political clout they carry in the
Democratic Party.
6) Union members will vote overwhelmingly for Obama. He is their key to money and power
in business, state and local politics.
7) Big Business will support Obama. They already have. He has almost $1 billion dollars
in his reelection purse gained largely from his connections with Big Business and is
gaining more every day. Big Business loves Obama because he gives them access
to taxpayer money so long as they support his social and political agenda.
8) The media love him. They may attack the people who work for him, but they love him.
After all, to not love him would be racist.
9) Most other minorities and special interest groups will vote for him. Oddly, the
overwhelming majority of Jews and Muslims will support him because they won't vote
Republican. American Indians will support him. Homosexuals tend to vote Democratic.
And lastly…
10) approximately half of independents will vote for Obama. And he doesn't need anywhere
near that number because he has all of the groups previously mentioned. The President
will win an overwhelming victory in 2012.”…Author Unknown
Frightening? ABSOLUTELY!
See – I am of the opinion that America cannot survive another four years of Obama.
I have no operational crystal ball and I am unable to peer into the future and give you a
report. But if I were to make a suggestion at this moment, it would be this: Americans
should pray intently and unceasingly while working our behinds off to prevent the
prediction in the unknown author’s prognostication from becoming a reality.
J. D. Longstreet