A Commentary by J. D. Longstreet
The famous (or infamous) October surprise has become a thing of dread as presidential elections wind down to the last month, or so, of an election cycle.
Many are beginning to wonder what Obama will pull out of his magician's hat this fall.
The first thing that springs, instantly, to mind is war.
It's not as if America is not already preparing for war. We are. There can be no doubt that the presence of such a vast number of US warships is causing a rise in the waters of the Indian Ocean and the so-called Persian Gulf. Let us not forget the warships of US allies, too.
US troops are already on the ground in small Middle Eastern nations in the Persian Gulf area and Eastern Africa as well as US aircraft. Back in my day we called those pieces of geography "staging areas." Nowadays we say those same concentrations of combat troops in countries near the enemy are "forward deployed."
Out in the Indian Ocean air bases leased from US allies are staging areas for US warplanes and recon aircraft -- and the now ubiquitous drones.
There can be no doubt that America is rattling its sabres ... loudly.
The preparations for war against Iran has reached such a stage of readiness in the area that the US could go to war at a moment's notice.
Considering all the above, is it any wonder that many, including yours truly, feel Obama will commit the US to war this fall? In fact, the only REAL surprise would be If Obama FAILED to attack Iran prior to the election .
Americans are loath to change Commanders-in-Chief during wartime. Obama knows this. He will not be, in my opinion, reluctant to use the blunt force instrument provided him by the US military to help him secure his second term as President.
Come this fall, if Mr. Obama is behind, or trending behind, in the polls, grab your flak jackets, we will be at war.
Don't misunderstand, I'm all for giving Iran the back of our hand, right across the chops. But I do detest the idea that American blood might be sacrificed to secure a politician's political future. That, to be blunt, just sucks!
If the current polls can be believed, Obama and Romney are in what amounts to a dead heat. But remember, the REAL campaign has not even begun.
The GOP is famous for their ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory so, I along with a few million other GOP voters, are deeply concerned they'll do it again in the contest against Obama.
Conservatives approach politics wearing Hazmat suits. It is a dirty, filthy, business and we'd really rather be doing something else, something, well, cleaner. Frankly, we're just not as good wallowing around in the gutter of politics as are the democrats.
Then there is the fact that every republican candidate must go up against -- not only the democratic candidate -- but the mainstream media, which is the propaganda machine of the political left in America. Republican candidates must fight and win on two fronts -- simultaneously -- to win an election in America.
The point is -- it will be difficult enough to defeat Obama without an October surprise. With that event, especially a war, it will be darn near impossible for Romney to defeat Obama and secure the Oval Office.
Now, if an ole swamp rat like yours truly knows that, you can be sure the political elite on the left know it and, I suspect, have planned accordingly.
There is one problem, however. That is -- how to drag out a war with Iran from October past Election Day. US forces should be able to absolutely decimate and route Iran's military in under two weeks. Ordinarily that's a good thing. But Obama will need the war to get him safely past the election before it (the war) ends. THAT will take some doing.
Unless the Iranian Revolutionary Guard is made of stronger stuff than Iraq's Republican Guard within 48 hours of the war's beginning they'll be looking for an American or Brit, or anyone who LOOKS like an American or a Brit, and failing that, anyone who might KNOW an American or Brit to whom they can surrender.
Not to put to fine a point on it, but a quick end to the war could really foul Obama's October Surprise.
In any event, it would behoove the Romney camp to be prepared. But -- how DO you prepare for an unforeseen (even a foreseen) bit of chicanery by an incumbent socialist president that late in the election cycle?
There is only so much a challenger can do. Challenging a Commander-in-Chief's decision to take the nation to war -- in advance -- is extremely tricky and full of a host of pitfalls for the challenger. That's why making war against Iran is so invitingly delicious for Obama! And THAT'S why I think the October surprise will be an attack on Iran.
Have you noticed that democratic presidents seem to NEED a way to make them look more "manly" in the eyes of their base. We are all aware of the numerous attempts Obama's minions have made to inflate the masculinity of their Supreme Leader. Had there not been a possible threat to the national security of the United States, their efforts toward "puffery" of the Number One Progressive Socialist in America would have been funny. (Oh, heck. Let's be truthful here. They WERE funny!)
The endeavor to make a "metrosexual male" look threateningly masculine is, well, a lost cause. (If you look up metrosexual in the dictionary you'll most likely find a photo of Obama right beside the definition.)
As I see it, at this point in the campaign, the only move the GOP has is to make Obama -- and the public -- aware that they EXPECT an October Surprise from the Obama team. At least that will remove much of the shock value from any outlandish move the Obama team might feel it necessary to spring on an otherwise unsuspecting American electorate in the eleventh hour of this election cycle.
So -- "Heads-Up" America! You have been warned! Come to think of it -- so has Iran.
J. D. Longstreet