Friday, May 04, 2012

US Prepares For The Day After

US Prepares For The Day After
A Commentary by J. D. Longstreet

So what happens the day after the United States and/or Israel strikes Iran?  That is an extremely important question.  And the US military is attempting to ascertain just what may happen -- or WILL happen -- and how the US should respond, or, at least, be prepared to  respond.

Preparations ARE being made for a strike on Iran's nuclear facilities by both the US and Israel and other -- er -- "unnamed" countries. 

One of the most important concerns has been, and remains, that Iran will strike back in some manner, or manners, after a bombing strike.  It is expected that, almost immediately, Iran will make a move on the Straits of Hormuz to shut down the vital shipment of oil for much of the world that traverses that bottleneck in the Persian Gulf every day.  But what else will Iran do?  That's what our best military minds, and those of Israel, are trying to determine and be prepared.

The US has at least two carrier groups on station off the shore of Iran currently.  A third carrier group is due to join them soon.   On shore the US has some 15,000 combat troops and equipment in place in Kuwait and ready to move at a moment's notice.   Nobody knows how many special forces troops (both US and Israeli)  are positioned, or, are already inside Iran. 

Exactly when the strike will happen is anybody's guess -- and that's the way Israel wants it.  Whether the Obama Administration knows of Israel's plans is also anyone's guess.  A great show has been made of Israel's lack of trust in the current US administration and that could be all for show, or, it could be a fact.  Again, it is anyone's guess.

What is certain, however, is an attack on Iran is a foregone conclusion. The "how" and the "when" are left to speculation.  

I have thought for sometime that as long as Israel is speaking publicly about an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, Israel will not attack.  But that is not necessarily true.  Keeping one's enemy off balance and guessing when, where, and how an attack will come is an integral part of war fighting.  Israel is a past master at just such tactics.

Israel's intelligence services are arguably the best in the world, bar none.   They have to be -- and they are.  They have zero tolerance for mistakes.  After all Israel's very existence relies on the information gathering those services provide. 

What IS obvious is that troops and materiel are being moved into the area and preparations are being made for a huge military effort against Iran.

In a report from Debka File dated April 28, 2012 and entitled: "US military drills Day One after strike on Iran, deploys F-22s to Gulf" the following is reported:

" US Navy, Air Force, ground, intelligence and special forces units based at home, in Europe and the Middle East, took part this week in a special exercise ordered by President Barack Obama to simulate reactions to a potential US-Israel strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, debkafile’s exclusive military and Washington sources report.

Sunday, April 22, the US also transferred a number of advanced stealth F-22 fighter bombers, believed to be from the 302nd Fighter Squadron 302, from the joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Alaska to the Al Dhafra Air Base in the United Arab Emirates.

According to our sources, the F-22 jets will join the F-15s of the Massachusetts Air National Guard’s 104th Fighter Wing which were transferred to the Al Udeid base a month ago.

Their mission will be to destroy the Iranian air force and air defense batteries so as to clear the way for US and Israeli bombers to go into action against Iran’s nuclear sites and the strategic infrastructure of its army and Revolutionary Guards Corps."   (Source) 
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It is thought that five other countries are involved in the planning and will supply troops and materiel and join in the actual attack at some level.  Though unnamed the five "unnamed counties" are thought to be Britain, France, Germany, and either Holland or Italy, according to Debka File.

The countries involved understand that an attack must come soon because the window for such a military move is closing.  Soon, Iran will have its nuclear facilities hardened by secreting them deep underground out of reach of most existing bunker busting munitions -- at least those of which we have knowledge.

Once that happens, the only option for air power is to deny access to the facilities by destroying entrances to the facilities.  Destruction of the facilities would require troops on the ground and a very messy campaign.

Current thinking is that an attack will be mounted sometime in May.  But outside the small group actually formulating the plans no one knows when the attack will come.

It is clear that Iran has pushed the envelope just as far as it can be pushed and now -- something must happen.

Iran has promised publicly that once it has nuclear weapons Israel and the United States are its primary targets. That alone makes and attack on Iran imperative. 

It is also clear that Iran will certainly share its nuclear arsenal with terrorists all over the world.  That cannot be allowed.

J. D. Longstreet

1 comment:

  1. The Samson option...Israel's hole card