Obama Frantic For A Deal With Iran
A Realistic Israel Leery and Frustrated
A Commentary by J. D. Longstreet
Israel/Netanyahu has reluctantly, and even hesitantly, agreed to step back from the military brink with Iran to allow Obama a six-month window within which to win an agreement with Iran in which the latter would abandon it's endeavor to create a nuclear bomb.
Here's what DEBKAfile reported on May 19th: "Netanyahu and Ehud Barak have decided to stand back for Barack Obama to put his interim deal with Iran to the test, debkafile’s sources report. They decided to go along with it despite their reservations after receiving assurances from the White House that any Iranian violations would result in the immediate termination of all negotiations and bring military action forward as the sole remaining option for stopping a nuclear Iran. It was not clear if US intended to exercise the military itself. The Obama administration handed similar assurances to the G-8 leaders meeting at Camp David Saturday May 19.
That same report from DEBKAFILE went on to say the following: " Israel’s qualified acquiescence to the deal negotiated by Washington was accompanied by assertions by its ministers that Iran was lying about its nuclear intentions and playing the world for a fool. Tehran would therefore not stand up to the test."
It's not going well for Obama.
Iran is playing Obama like a Stradivarius. Plus, Obama, as the naive kid on the block, has invited Russia into the negotiation so than any deal with Iran will include Russia, thereby bringing a third party influence to the mix. (Actually, considering that Israel has given up none of its stake in the deal, there will now be FOUR countries involved in the negotiations even though Israel is silent.)
Think about it a moment: Russia backs Iran AND Syria. Iran Backs Syria, as well. Obama's blunder has now connected BOTH issues in such a way that the problem with a single country, Iran, is now a regional problem making the matter much, much, more complicated than before. It also turns the heat on Israel up even more.
Seems to me, Obama is going to have to produce some extremely fancy footwork while perfectly juggling all the countries now involved and, at the same time, try to convince Israel not to renege on the deal with him and go bomb the living daylights out of Iran
To be a fly on the wall within Israel's government, (Netanyahu's office, perhaps) would, I suspect, be very, well, interesting! It is well to remember that when Israel is publicly silent, that is when Israel is most dangerous to her enemies.
Obama has rolled the dice and he is losing this crap game.
Why Mr. Obama seems always afraid to go it alone, to stand tall, like a man, and confront America's enemies rather than seek refuge in numbers and/or behind the skirts of America's allies -- and in Russia's case -- America's enemies -- is an utter mystery. Does he not understand it makes him, and America, appear weak? Does he not understand that in world politics perception is extremely important? Does he not understand that he is embarrassing his countrymen?
I have lived through a lot of US Presidential administrations and I have yet to experience an American presidential administration as TIMID as the Obama administration. Considering the timidity of the Carter administration, that is saying a LOT.
No wonder Netanyahu is frustrated. Bibi walks, talks and acts like a man, an Alpha male, if you will. I would expect he would prefer to interact with an American with the same traits. Alas, he is stymied with Obama, an obvious metrosexual male -- and it must be exasperating, infuriating, and confounding, all at the same time.
In the meantime, the mess Obama is making of the Iranian situation is doing absolutely nothing toward moving the Iranians off the dime. Indeed, it would appear that it is only muddying the waters even more. In the end, when military action is finally taken it is this kind of "dance of the diplomatic dunces" that will run the death toll upwards and extend the military action longer than would have been necessary otherwise.
By bringing Russia into the negotiations with Iran, Obama has pulled the unmitigated mess in Syria into the mix as well.
Why? Is this part of that "flexibility" Obama promised Putin he'd demonstrate after the November election?
Russia is supporting Bashar Assad, dictator of Syria, with arms, moral support, and -- there have been reports that Russian boots are actually on the ground in Syria, as well. With Washington actively considering sending arms to the rebels in Syria, we may well be looking at another proxy war between the United States and Russia. Shades of the old Cold War, huh?
From DEBKAfile comes this: "The Iranian nuclear impasse and the Syrian civil war are more tightly interlinked than ever by President Barack Obama’s decision to cooperate with Moscow for solutions of both - a partnership that promises the eventual three-way carving-up of Middle East influence. The six-month break Israel allowed Obama for diplomatic solutions before exercising its military option, gives Tehran the freedom to defy the six powers in nuclear negotiations and ties US hands against Bashar Assad’s atrocities. Obama's diplomatic path is already cluttered with obstacles."
In the meantime, there are reports (by Reuters) from the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) that Iran has enough high grade uranium to produce at least five (5) nuclear bombs. The report by Reuters continued: "This is nearly 750 kg more than in the previous IAEA report issued in February, and ISIS said Iran's monthly production had risen by roughly a third.
"This total amount of 3.5 percent low enriched uranium hexafluoride, if further enriched to weapon grade, is enough to make over five nuclear weapons," ISIS said in its analysis."
It would appear that Iran is less than persuaded by Mr. Obama's argument and/or threats(?). Need anyone be surprised?
Courtesy of the carter administration, Iran has much experience in "negotiating" with an American president and, as a result, has little, if any, respect for the office of the US President. They will do (or say) whatever they feel necessary to maintain these on-going "talks" while, behind the curtain, they are continuing to enrich uranium as quickly and efficiently as possible. When they are ready, or when they grow tired of the charade, they will pull the plug on the talks and leave Obama slack-jawed wondering what happened.
In the meantime, Israel would be well advised to maintain its military on a high state of alert while seriously considering canceling the deal with Obama in favor of the continued existence of their country.
J. D. Longstreet