A Third and Fourth Front in the War?

Originally posted at Right Truth

Peace in Northern Iraq has been a source of pride for Americans, but looming conflict on the Turkish border may prove to be what some are calling a third front in the war. Also there is more evidence coming forward that Muqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army is splintering into sub-groups, ... being trained in Iran and Syria, ... and being financed by Iran. Yesterday Iran snatched up 15 UK sailors while they continue to defy the United Nations and the West. If Northern Iraq and Turkey represent the third front in the war, then Iran certainly represents the fourth front.

My sources suggest that there are JAM military objectives in helping destabilize Northern Iraq and cooperative measures being taken by JAM in support of Turkey. Also that the irony is that our operational support for Turkey's measures against PKK may run counter to our larger objective to assist U.S. contra Iran.

Earlier this week I posted on Turkey's annual deployment to the Iraq border where one report suggested they are planning a military operation against Kurdish camps in northern Iraq. The authorities said members of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) regularly tried to exploit the snowy weather during this season to infiltrate Turkey unnoticed.

The Guardian article makes this situation sound very serious, like much more than a routine show of force:

The US is scrambling to head off a "disastrous" Turkish military intervention in Kurdish-controlled northern Iraq that threatens to derail the Baghdad security surge and open up a third front in the battle to save Iraq from disintegration.

Senior Bush administration officials have assured Turkey in recent days that US forces will increase efforts to root out Kurdistan Workers' party (PKK) guerrillas enjoying safe haven in the Qandil mountains, on the Iraq-Iran-Turkey border.

But Abdullah Gul, Turkey's foreign minister, MPs, military chiefs and diplomats say up to 3,800 PKK fighters are preparing for attacks in south-east Turkey - and Turkey is ready to hit back if the Americans fail to act. "We will do what we have to do, we will do what is necessary. Nothing is ruled out," Mr Gul said. "I have said to the Americans many times: suppose there is a terrorist organisation in Mexico attacking America. What would you do?... We are hopeful. We have high expectations. But we cannot just wait forever."

Turkish sources said "hot pursuit" special forces operations in Khaftanin and Qanimasi, northern Iraq, were already under way. Murat Karayilan, a PKK leader, said this week that a "mad war" was in prospect unless Ankara backed off.

This week Qais Khazali, his brother Laith Khazali and several other members of the Khazali network were captured by coalition forces for their involvement in the Karbala attack which resulted in the death by bullet to the head of 5 American soldiers from a Civil Affairs Unit. Qais Khazali has been a spokesman for radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr in the past.

It is believed by many that the Karbala attack, as well as others, was conducted by splinter groups of the Mahdi army with planning and financial support by members of the Iranian Qods Force extraterritorial unit of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)"

At the same time Khazali and company were arrested, U.S. forces in Iraq freed Ahmed Shibani (a/k/a Sherbani), a top aide to Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr, after holding him for more than two years.

U.S.-Iraq coalition leaders said in a statement that they believed Shibani “could play a potentially important role in helping to moderate extremism and foster reconciliation in Iraq,” the BBC reported.

Shibani, a leader in Sadr’s Mehdi Army, has been held since his capture two years ago in the mainly Shiite town of Najaf. The U.S. military described him at that time as a major security threat. (UPI)

So why release Ahmed Shibani now? Is it as one source believes, 'a sign of goodwill on the part of the Americans', or after further thought could it be that the Americans have 'turned' Shibani and will be using him as an intelligence source?

"Even though we need to await Shibani's debriefing and overall psych evaluation etc, there is some concern the Americans may want to use him contra al-Sadr and may have turned him. I like to think not. Would be ill-advised."

I don't buy that Ahmed Shibani has turned after such a short time in coalition captivity. But that kind of thinking shows how cautious al-Sadr must be. Is he in Iran like many suspect? I don't know for sure and I actually believe he is somewhere else. Why? Because I know for a fact that he is in constant communication with the Americans, the coalition forces and the Iraqi Government. He does seem to have control over some of the Mahdi army members who have put aside their weapons, at least for a time.

But if it is true, as Richard Miniter thinks, the lower level Mahdi members are not getting paid by normal sources, they may very well be splintering into sub-groups, who are paid by Iran. Or, as one anonymous source says:

This has created a unique opportunity for American and allied troops, intelligence sources say.

Through intermediaries — known in spook-speak as “assets” — a handful of Mahdi Army leaders have approached allied forces and begun negotiating.

The source did not say whether immunity from criminal liability or the promise of payments were under discussion.

If these negotiations bear fruit, the Mahdi Army could be well on its way to being dismantled , commander by commander, fighter by fighter. (more)

As I've always said, it comes down to money in most instances. Either way, Moqtada al-Sadr is biding his time, staying safe, waiting to see which side comes out on top and where he should place his loyalties.

Meantime, Northern Iraq may be headed for conflict and it's a sure bet something is going to happen with Iran eventually. Stay tuned folks, this could get even very interesting.

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